This model uses linear regression. The data are from the World Health Organisation and European Centres for Disease Control. The data start from March 23, 2020 when the UK lockdown was introduced.
Each data point is the daily 7 day moving average. For each day, the reading is divided by the previous day’s reading: The result is either below, at or above 1. Where the reading is less than yesterday’s the data points are black (growth is reversed); Where the reading is greater than yesterday’s the data points are orange. The grey area is the 95% confidence interval of the regression.
It took 12 days of lockdown to slow the growth and there was not an obvious peak until April 26, 2020. Since then there has been a slow grind downwards with each daily reading being slightly less than the one before.